Week 5 Weather Report: Rain in the Mid-Atlantic

Forecast as of Friday, October 9, 2026

• Three 1 PM ET games have a high chance of rain: Giants-Commanders, Colts-Steelers and Browns-Jets.
• Temperatures are in the low-to-mid 60s. No game is forecast for sustained wind of 15+ mph (the highest is about 13.5 mph in Washington).
• Rain moves volume toward RBs and short passes. Downgrade deep threats a little, but don't bench them.

Giants at Commanders — 91% rain, 65°, wind 13.5 mph E

The worst conditions on the slate.

• Cam Skattebo: Start him for volume. In the Giants' wet, windy 12-7 Week 3 win at MetLife, he had 20 carries for 60 yards plus 3 catches for 40 yards on a 77% snap share. He's averaging only 3.5 YPC, but rain-game workloads favor him.
• Jameis Winston: Bench in all formats. He's thrown 0 TD on 49 attempts, and the rain lowers his ceiling further.
• Malik Nabers (knee, DNP Wednesday): Check his status. If he plays, he's a lower-floor WR2 because of the QB and the weather.
• Jayden Daniels (elbow): Practiced in full Wednesday and is expected to start. His rushing helps protect his floor in the rain. Confirm he's active.
• Terry McLaurin: Status unconfirmed after he was inactive in London. If he plays, temper expectations for his downfield targets.

Colts at Steelers — 88% rain, 63°, wind 10.6 mph

• Jonathan Taylor: Rain boosts him. In the driving rain at SF in 2021, he ran for 107 yards and a TD (but fumbled on the first snap). He has 4 rushing TDs this season.
• Jaylen Warren: Volume start. Rico Dowdle (toe) has missed two games, which could leave Warren as the lead back again. He has 309 rushing yards and 13 catches.
• Aaron Rodgers: Low-end streamer at best. His bad-weather reputation comes from the cold (24-8 at 32°F or below), not rain.
• Tyler Warren / Freiermuth + D. Washington: Short-area TEs get a slight bump in the rain.
• DK Metcalf / Josh Downs: Small downgrade for deep looks.

Browns at Jets — 68-70% rain, 62°, wind 11 mph

• Quinshon Judkins: Rain bumps his volume, but his efficiency is poor (3.68 YPC). He's a flex play.
• Braelon Allen: Leads the backfield with Breece Hall (quad) out. Volume flex.
• Geno Smith: Has been sharp (5 TD, 0 INT), but the rain caps his upside. He's a mid-QB2.
• Garrett Wilson / Denzel Boston: Slight downgrade. The Browns' starting QB (Watson or Sanders) isn't confirmed, which hurts Boston more.

Minor watch

• Bengals at Dolphins (89°F, humid, 10% storms): Heat and a possible brief storm delay. Ja'Marr Chase (concussion) and Tee Higgins (adductor) injury news matters more than the weather.
• Texans at Titans (~20% showers/storms, 69°F): Small risk of a delay. No lineup changes.

Not affected: Bucs-Cowboys (TNF, roof), Eagles-Jaguars (London), Raiders-Patriots, Vikings-Saints (dome), Bears-Packers (72°F, dry), Broncos-Chargers (SoFi), Lions-Cardinals (roof likely closed), 49ers-Seahawks (clear), Ravens-Falcons (retractable roof; rain outside), Bills-Rams (MNF, SoFi).

Forecasts change through the weekend. Check the NWS forecast for each stadium Sunday morning before lineups lock.